President Donald Trump’s energy blockade against Cuba is intended to weaken the island’s communist government at a moment when it is already struggling to maintain stability.
The policy, which restricts fuel supplies reaching Cuba, is intensifying an economic crisis that has plagued the country for decades. With limited access to fuel, daily life has become more difficult for the nation’s roughly 10 million residents. Water distribution systems are under strain, and shortages of food and medicine have grown more severe.
According to Sebastián Arcos, interim director of the Cuban Research Institute at Florida International University, the situation on the island is deteriorating rapidly.
“There’s a number of epidemics rippling through the population right now,” Arcos said. “Repression is increasing as the regime feels cornered, and they are not signaling any willingness to negotiate with the United States.”
Despite the worsening conditions, Arcos noted that the Cuban government has historically demonstrated a remarkable ability to endure hardship.
“These people are really, really bad guys, and they have shown this capacity to survive difficult crises,” he said. “But I don’t think they can survive this one.”
Trump recently suggested that the United States might ultimately achieve what he described as a “friendly takeover” of Cuba. The concept, he indicated, could resemble Washington’s approach in Venezuela, where military pressure removed certain leaders while the broader governing structure remained intact, paired with demands for greater economic cooperation.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio is leading the administration’s strategy toward Cuba and is reportedly engaged in discussions with Raúl Guillermo Rodríguez Castro, the grandson of former Cuban leader Raúl Castro.
Rodríguez Castro, who serves as his grandfather’s bodyguard, is believed to play a key role in GAESA, the military-run conglomerate that controls large portions of Cuba’s economy. GAESA oversees major sectors including tourism, retail, and financial services. According to the Miami Herald, the organization was estimated in 2024 to hold about $18 billion in assets and bank accounts that had previously been undisclosed.
Reports suggest that Rubio met with Rodríguez Castro earlier this week on the sidelines of the Caribbean regional conference Caricom, held in St. Kitts and Nevis.
Speaking to reporters, Rubio emphasized that the administration is not necessarily seeking an immediate collapse of Cuba’s government.
“Cuba needs to change. It needs to change,” Rubio said Wednesday. “And it doesn’t have to change all at once.”
These developments come amid broader geopolitical tensions involving the United States and its allies. Over the weekend, the United States and Israel launched a coordinated military campaign targeting Iran.
White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt stated Saturday that Rubio informed senior congressional leaders before the operation took place. Her statement, posted on X, came as critics questioned whether Trump authorized the strikes without congressional approval.
According to Leavitt, the president monitored the situation overnight at his Mar-a-Lago residence in Florida alongside members of his national security team. Trump also spoke by phone with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
Leavitt said Rubio contacted members of the so-called “Gang of Eight,” a group of congressional leaders responsible for receiving classified intelligence briefings.
“Prior to the attacks, Secretary Rubio called all members of the Gang of Eight to provide congressional notification, and he was able to reach and brief seven of the eight members,” she said.
The Gang of Eight includes the majority and minority leaders of both the House and Senate, along with the chairs and ranking members of the House and Senate intelligence committees. House Speaker Mike Johnson confirmed that the group had been briefed about potential military action earlier in the week.
Under the National Security Act of 1947, Congress must be kept “fully informed” about major intelligence activities. However, presidents from both political parties have typically interpreted that requirement to mean that notifying the Gang of Eight satisfies the law rather than briefing the full intelligence committees.
Still, the strikes drew criticism from some lawmakers. Representative Thomas Massie of Kentucky argued that the operation constituted an act of war undertaken without congressional authorization. Massie and Representative Ro Khanna of California had planned to force a vote that would limit the president’s ability to launch military strikes on Iran without formal approval from Congress.
As debate over war powers intensified, Rubio also announced that Iran had been designated a state sponsor of wrongful detention. The designation follows an executive order signed by Trump last fall aimed at protecting U.S. citizens from being detained abroad for political leverage.
Rubio warned that further measures could be implemented if Iran continues such practices, including potential restrictions on the use of U.S. passports for travel to, through, or from Iran.
